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Alleima: mai kera bakin karfe na musamman mara bashi tare da 4x EBITDA (SAMHF)

Alleima (OTC: SAMHF) ne in mun gwada da sabon kamfani kamar yadda aka spun kashe daga Sandvik (OTCPK:SDVKF) (OTCPK: SDVKY) a karo na biyu da rabi na 2022. Rabuwar Alleima daga Sandvik zai sa na farko gane kamfanin- ƙayyadaddun buri na ci gaban dabarun ba kawai zama rarrabuwar babbar ƙungiyar Sandvik ba.
Alleima masana'anta ne na ci-gaba na bakin karfe, gami na musamman da tsarin dumama.Duk da yake gaba ɗaya kasuwar bakin karfe tana samar da tan miliyan 50 a kowace shekara, abin da ake kira “ci-gaba” ɓangaren bakin karfe shine ton miliyan 2-4 kawai a kowace shekara, inda Alleima ke aiki.
Kasuwar gawa ta musamman ta bambanta da kasuwar bakin karfe mai inganci saboda wannan kasuwa ta hada da gami kamar titanium, zirconium da nickel.Alleima yana mai da hankali kan kasuwan masana'antu tanda.Wannan yana nufin cewa Alleima ya mayar da hankali kan samar da bututun da ba su da kyau da kuma bututun ƙarfe, wanda ke da takamaiman yanki na kasuwa (misali, masu musayar zafi, cibin mai da iskar gas ko ma ƙarfe na musamman na wuƙaƙen dafa abinci).
An jera hannun jarin Alleima a kan Stock Exchange a ƙarƙashin alamar alamar ALLI.A halin yanzu akwai kusan hannun jarin miliyan 251 da suka yi fice, wanda ya haifar da babban jarin kasuwa na SEK biliyan 10.A halin yanzu na musanya na SEK 10.7 zuwa 1 dalar Amurka, babban kasuwancin kasuwa na yanzu shine kusan dalar Amurka miliyan 935 (Zan yi amfani da SEK a matsayin kudin tushe a wannan labarin).Matsakaicin adadin kasuwancin yau da kullun a Stockholm shine kusan hannun jari miliyan 1.2 a kowace rana, yana ba da kuɗin kuɗi kusan dala miliyan 5.
Yayin da Alleima ya sami damar haɓaka farashi, ribar ribar ta kasance ƙasa da ƙasa.A cikin rubu'i na uku, kamfanin ya bayar da rahoton kudaden shiga da ya kai kasa da biliyan SEK 4.3, kuma ko da yake ya karu da kusan kashi uku idan aka kwatanta da rubu'i na uku na bara, farashin kayayyakin da ake sayar da su ya karu da fiye da kashi 50%, wanda ya kai ga samun raguwar kudin shiga. rage yawan riba.
Abin takaici, wasu kuɗaɗen kuma sun karu, wanda ya haifar da asarar SEK 26 miliyan.Yin la'akari da mahimman abubuwan da ba a maimaita su ba (ciki har da farashin kashe-kashe da ke da alaƙa da de facto spin-off na Alleima daga Sandvik), Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarya na EBIT ya kasance SEK 195 miliyan SEK 195 a cewar Alleima.Haƙiƙa wannan kyakkyawan sakamako ne idan aka kwatanta da kwata na uku na shekarar da ta gabata, wanda ya haɗa da abubuwa guda ɗaya na SEK 172 miliyan, ma'ana cewa EBIT a cikin kwata na uku na 2021 zai zama SEK 123 miliyan kawai.Wannan yana tabbatar da kusan kusan 50% karuwa a cikin EBIT a cikin kwata na uku na 2022 akan daidaitacce.
Wannan kuma yana nufin ya kamata mu ɗauki asarar kuɗi na SEK 154m tare da hatsin gishiri saboda yuwuwar sakamakon zai iya zama karye ko kusa da shi.Wannan al'ada ce, saboda akwai tasirin yanayi a nan: bisa ga al'ada, watanni na rani a Alleim sune mafi rauni, tun lokacin rani ne a arewacin hemisphere.
Wannan kuma yana shafar haɓakar babban jarin aiki kamar yadda Alleima ke gina matakan ƙira a al'adance a farkon rabin shekara sannan kuma yana samun monetize waɗancan kadarorin a rabin na biyu.
Shi ya sa ba za mu iya fitar da sakamakon kwata kawai ba, ko ma sakamakon 9M 2022, don ƙididdige aikin na cikakken shekara.
Wannan ana cewa, Bayanin Kuɗi na 9M 2022 yana ba da haske mai ban sha'awa game da yadda kamfani ke aiki akan tushe mai mahimmanci.Jadawalin da ke ƙasa yana nuna bayanin kuɗin kuɗin kuma kuna iya ganin cewa kuɗin da aka ruwaito daga ayyukan ba su da kyau a SEK 419 miliyan.Har ila yau, za ku ga tarin jarin aiki na kusan SEK 2.1, wanda ke nufin cewa daidaitawar kuɗin aiki ya kai kusan SEK biliyan 1.67 da kuma sama da SEK biliyan 1.6 bayan an cire kuɗin haya.
An kiyasta jarin jari na shekara-shekara (ci gaba + girma) a SEK miliyan 600, wanda ke nufin cewa jarin jarin da aka daidaita na kashi uku na farko ya kamata ya zama SEK miliyan 450, dan kadan fiye da SEK miliyan 348 da kamfani ya kashe a zahiri.Dangane da waɗannan sakamakon, daidaita kuɗin kuɗi kyauta na watanni tara na farkon shekara ya kai kusan SEK biliyan 1.15.
Kwata na huɗu na iya zama ɗan wahala kamar yadda Alleima ke tsammanin SEK 150m zai yi mummunan tasiri akan sakamakon kwata na huɗu saboda farashin musaya, matakan ƙira da farashin ƙarfe.Duk da haka, yawanci ana samun ingantaccen tsari na oda da kuma mafi girma tabo saboda hunturu a arewacin kogin.Ina tsammanin za mu iya jira har zuwa 2023 (watakila ma ƙarshen 2023) don ganin yadda kamfanin ke tafiyar da iskar wucin gadi na yanzu.
Wannan ba yana nufin Alleima tana cikin mummunan hali ba.Duk da iska na wucin gadi, ina tsammanin Alleima zai sami riba a cikin kwata na huɗu tare da samun kuɗin shiga na SEK 1.1-1.2 biliyan, dan kadan mafi girma a cikin shekarar kuɗi na yanzu.Adadin kudin shiga na SEK biliyan 1.15 yana wakiltar abin da aka samu a kowane kaso na kusan SEK 4.6, wanda ke nuna cewa hannun jarin yana cinikin kusan sau 8.5.
Ɗaya daga cikin abubuwan da na fi yabawa shine ma'auni mai ƙarfi na Alleima.Sandvik ya yi adalci a cikin shawararsa na karkatar da Alleima, tare da takardar ma'auni na SEK biliyan 1.1 a tsabar kuɗi da SEK biliyan 1.5 a cikin bashi na yanzu da na dogon lokaci a ƙarshen kwata na uku.Wannan yana nufin net bashin kusan SEK 400 ne kawai, amma Alleima kuma ya haɗa da hayar hayar da fensho a cikin gabatarwar kamfanin.An kiyasta jimillar lamunin da ya kai SEK miliyan 325, a cewar kamfanin.Ina jiran cikakken rahoton shekara-shekara don zurfafa cikin bashin "jami'a" na net, kuma ina so in ga yadda canjin kuɗin ruwa zai iya shafar gibin fensho.
A kowane hali, matsayi na kuɗi na Alleima (ban da bashin fensho) yana iya nuna kyakkyawan matsayi na tsabar kudi (ko da yake wannan ya rage ga canje-canje a babban birnin aiki).Gudanar da kamfani ba tare da bashi ba zai kuma tabbatar da tsarin rabon Alleima na rarraba kashi 50% na ribar yau da kullun.Idan kiyasi na na FY 2023 daidai ne, muna tsammanin rabon rabon SEK 2.2-2.3 a kowace rabon, wanda ya haifar da rabon rabon na 5.5-6%.Matsakaicin adadin haraji akan rabon kuɗin da ba mazauna Sweden ba shine 30%.
Duk da yake yana iya ɗaukar ɗan lokaci don Alleima da gaske ya nuna wa kasuwa ɗimbin tsabar kuɗi kyauta da zai iya samarwa, hannun jari yana da kyau sosai.Idan aka yi la'akari da matsayin tsabar kuɗi na SEK miliyan 500 a ƙarshen shekara mai zuwa da kuma daidaitawa da daidaita EBITDA na SEK biliyan 2.3, kamfanin yana ciniki a EBITDA wanda bai ninka sau 4 EBITDA ba.Sakamakon tsabar kuɗi na kyauta zai iya wuce SEK biliyan 1 nan da 2023, wanda ya kamata ya ba da hanya don raba ragi mai ban sha'awa da kuma ƙara ƙarfafa ma'auni.
A halin yanzu ba ni da matsayi a Alleima, amma ina tsammanin akwai fa'idodi don karkatar da Sandvik a matsayin kamfani mai zaman kansa.
Bayanan Edita: Wannan labarin ya tattauna ɗaya ko fiye da bayanan sirri waɗanda ba a yin ciniki akan manyan musayar Amurka.Yi hankali da haɗarin da ke tattare da waɗannan talla.
Yi la'akari da shiga ra'ayoyin Ƙananan-Cap na Turai don keɓantaccen damar yin bincike mai aiki akan kyawawan damar saka hannun jari a Turai da amfani da fasalin taɗi don tattauna ra'ayoyi tare da mutane masu tunani iri ɗaya!
Bayyanawa: Ni/mu ba mu da haja, zaɓuɓɓuka ko makamancin irin wannan matsayi a cikin kamfanonin da ke sama kuma ba ma shirin ɗaukar irin waɗannan mukamai cikin sa'o'i 72 masu zuwa.Ni ne na rubuta wannan labarin kuma na bayyana ra'ayi na.Ban sami wani diyya ba (sai dai Neman Alfa).Ba ni da wata alaƙar kasuwanci da kowane kamfani da aka jera a cikin wannan labarin.


Lokacin aikawa: Janairu-09-2023